基于水土资源的海南省人口承载力研究

摘要

近年来,海南省海口市、三亚市等地人口快速增长,引起了各界对海南省承载力的担忧,需要研究制定承载力约束和经济增长需求下的人口与资源环境政策.为此,本文选取粮食产量、农产品营养成分和水资源量指标,分别定量测算承载力;采用就业弹性系数法,设定就业弹性系数和地区生产总值增长率,估算经济增长所需人口总量;利用PADIS-INT人口预测软件,设定总生育率、净迁移率等参数,预测人口变化情况.通过研究认为,2050年前海南省人口总量不会超过水土资源的承载力上限,全省总体上不存在人口过多的问题,而是存在人口不足的风险.建议海南省采取鼓励人口增长的政策措施,提升自然资源管理和国土空间治理水平,引导人口在全省均衡发展.%In recent years, the rapid growth of population in Haikou and Sanya has caused extensive concern about the carrying capacity of Hainan Province. To formulate scientific population and environmental policies, it is necessary to research the relationship between population, carrying capacity and economic growth. In this paper, three indicators, grain production, nutrient composition of agricultural products and water resources, are used to measure carrying capacity quantitatively; the employment elasticity coefficient method is used to set the employment elasticity coefficient and the growth rate of regional GDP to estimate the total population needed to support economic growth; PADIS-INT population forecasting software that has parameters to track total fertility rate and net migration rate is used to predict demographic changes. The results show that, as of 2050, the total population of Hainan Province will not have exceeded the upper limit of the carrying capacity of land and water resources. In general, there is no overpopulation problem in the province, but there may be structural problems related to population, such as a large proportion of elderly people, labor shortages, and a high social dependency ratio. It is suggested that the local government should adopt positive population policies, improve the management of natural resources and the environment, and guide the balanced development of population in the province.