京津冀地区1985-2000期间林地变化的时空格局及其影响因素

摘要

Forests are fundamental to maintaining ecological security and achieving regional sustainable devel-opment in China. Forest land change can result in many ecological problems including soil erosion, water shortages, drought and biodiversity loss. Based on landscape ecology and logistic regression we explored the spatiotemporal patterns and factors affecting forest land changes from 1985 to 2000 in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region of China. The results show decreased local fragmentation of woodland landscapes and that the shapes of forest patches have become more regular. For forest land cover change, soil organic matter content, slope type I (<5°), distance to the nearest vilage and per capita GDP were the most important independent variables from 1985 to 2000. This study indicates that spatial heterogeneity can affect the predictability of logistic regression models for forest land change.%林地是维护生态安全，实现区域可持续发展的根本基础资源。林地变化可能导致一些生态环境问题，包括土壤侵蚀，水资源短缺，干旱加剧以及生物多样性的丧失。本文以景观生态学和逻辑回归模型为基础，探讨了京津冀地区1985-2000期间林地变化的时空格局及其影响因素。格局分析结果表明，林地景观破碎化正在下降和林地形状变得越来越规则。通过建立Logistic回归模型，这项研究旨在探讨这一区域1985-2000期间林地变化的重要变量。对于京津冀地区1985-2000期间林地变化而言，土壤有机质含量，坡度（<5°），到最近村庄的距离以及人均国内生产总值是最重要的解释变量。研究表明，空间异质性会影响到林地变化的逻辑回归模型的可预测性。