中国贫困程度的再估计--基于中国综合社会调查的空间异质性分析

摘要

This paper eliminates the spatial price disparity and family scale economy,estimates and analyzes the poverty level and characteristics of different categorized Chinese regions using CGSS 2003—2013 data.The conclusion shows that the poverty level would be biased without considering the spatial price disparity and fam-ily scale economy.The poverty severity see big decrease during the period of 2002—2012,especially between 2007 and 2009.The poverty rate in 2012 for rural area is 14.8% and 3.8% for urban,which means that there are 0.1 2 billion poor people still.Compared with the urban area,the increasing coverage of the rural minimum subsistence guarantee system markedly decreases the poverty extension.Compared with the eastern and north-eastern regions,the western and central regions still rely on the economic growth to relieve poverty,and sus-tainable investment for poverty reduction influences the speed of poverty reduction significantly.%利用中国综合社会调查2003—2013年的数据，消除空间物价差异和家庭规模经济的影响，对我国城乡、四大板块以及国家扶贫重点工作县的贫困程度进行的分析发现，忽视家庭规模经济和空间物价水平差异会导致对贫困程度的误读。2002—2012年，我国的贫困程度虽然有所起伏，但整体有大幅度的缓解，尤其是2007—2009年的贫困程度降低了50%。到2012年我国农村贫困率为14.8%，城镇贫困率为3.8%，全国仍然有1.02亿贫困人口。相对于城镇地区，农村低保覆盖率的提高显著降低了农村的贫困广度；相对于东部和东北地区，中西部地区仍然需要依靠经济总体增长来进一步摆脱贫困；持续的扶贫开发投入对国贫县的脱贫影响显著。