广西能源、环境和经济增长的动态关系研究--基于VAR 模型的实证分析

摘要

利用广西1990-2011年GDP、能源消费和工业废气排放总量的数据，应用基于VAR 模型的动态计量分析方法，对广西经济、能源和环境的关系进行实证研究。结果表明：三者之间存在长期稳定的协整关系，能源消耗是经济增长和环境污染的 Granger原因，经济增长是能源消耗和环境污染的 Granger 原因。能源消耗对经济增长的正向影响效应时间较长且较稳定，环境污染初期对经济增长的抑制作用较弱却呈现缓慢增强的趋势；而经济增长对能源消耗和环境污染的影响持续时间较短。经济增长与能源消耗两者之间的相互影响较大，而环境污染受能源消耗变化影响较明显。%Using the GDP,energy consumption and industrial waste emissions data during the years of 1990-2011 in Guangxi Province,this paper studied the dynamic relationship among the economic growth,energy consumption and environ-mental pollution in Guangxi Province by applying cointegration,causality test and VAR model based on dynamic analysis meth-ods.The results show that there exists long-term stable cointegration among the three factors:economic growth and energy consumption are Granger caused environmental pollution.Impulse response function analysis and variance decomposition analy-sis show that the energy consumption plays a positive role in boosting economic growth and the inhibition of environmental pol-lution on economic growth is weak initially but becomes strong and strong later.There is strong relationship between the eco-nomic growth and energy consumption,and environmental pollution becomes obvious due to the energy consumption.