基于灰色系统理论的设备状态监测系统设计

摘要

介绍了设备状态集中监测系统的构建和灰色系统理论在设备状态预测中的应用原理及方法.利用Matlab提供的基于最小二乘法的非线性曲线拟合函数能方便地求解一阶灰微分方程,从而得到原始数列的预测值表达式.应用实例表明,基于灰色系统理论的预测模型适用于小样本不确定问题的研究,预测精度高、实现容易.基于灰色系统理论的设备状态监测系统的研制对于科学制定维修计划,改进设备的管理维护手段,确保试验任务的质量和进度具有重要作用.%This paper introduces the design of an equipment condition centralized monitoring system,and the theory and method of Grey system applied to equipment condition forecast.It is convenient to do the first order Grey differential equation by the nonlinear curve-fitting function based on least-squares.The example indicates the forecast model based on Grey system is fit for the small sample problem and it is precise and easy.The design of the equipment condition monitoring system based on Grey system has important effect in developing maintenance plan, improving management and assuring the quality of tests.