面向作战任务的弹药消耗预测模型研究

摘要

针对战时弹药供应存在断供以及盲供问题，从实战情况出发，按照宏观把握与微观分析相结合的思想，在重点分析弹药消耗规律与补给特点的基础上，建立了基于消耗规律的战时弹药预测模型。以红蓝双方对抗演习为背景，以影响弹药消耗与补给的各类因素为落脚点，通过数值计算与结果对比分析，验证了预测方法的有效性，一定程度上为指挥员宏观层面上整体把握弹药消耗规律，快速制定弹药补给方案提供了重要的辅助支撑作用。%To solve the problems of blindness and discontinuity in the wartime ammunition supply support,the paper develops an ammunition consumption prediction model for combat missions based on actual operational conditions.We follow the thinking of combining macroscopic grasp with microscopic analysis and give our main effort to the analysis of the consumption law and sup-ply characteristics.With a mock battle between the red force and the blue force as its background, and factors affecting ammunition consumption and other supplies as our foothold,we verify the validity of the prediction method by numerical calculation and comparative analysis of the results. The prediction method provides important assistant support for commanders to grasp the law of ammunition consumption on the macroscopic level and to rapidly develop an ammunition supply plan.