基于灰色理论的设备状态趋势预测建模及应用研究

摘要

Based on the characters of the environment experimentation system,the application of gray model in status trend prediction of the experimental plants is studied.The key parameters are collected,and the feasibility of this trend prediction method is analyzed.The idea and method of the gray model in trend prediction of the environment experimental plants are provided.The air supply pressure of axletree during the temperature dropping and holding are taken respectively as the examples for validating the method.The collected data are calculated by Matlab,and the re-sults show that the prediction method is characterized by small amount data,simple calculation and accurate prediction.It is feasible to be used in trend prediction of the environment experimen-tation plants.%主要研究了利用灰色理论对设备状态进行预测的步骤和方法，通过对设备运行的关键参数进行建模，可以有效地预测设备状态的发展趋势，并分别以降温和保温阶段的轴承供气压力为例对该预测模型进行了验证，通过Matlab对采集的历史数据进行计算，结果表明该预测方法具有数据量少、计算简单、预测准确的特点，在该试验设备的运行状态趋势预测是可行的。