我国沿海城市近岸海域环境污染的时空动态演变格局研究

摘要

近岸海域水质污染是陆域经济社会活动对海洋环境负外部性的集中呈现,是过度利用海洋环境容量与忽视海洋自净能力的体现.本研究以"时间和空间"为切入点,按照"过程-格局-机理"的分析框架,分析56个沿海城市近岸海域环境污染时空动态演变格局的形成及发展过程,甄别不同区域近岸海域环境污染的关键影响因素,探讨近岸海域污染防治的路径选择.从时间过程上看,变异系数揭示出56个沿海城市近岸海域污染差异较为显著.从空间格局上看,空间自相关系数表明沿海城市近岸海域环境污染程度与地理相邻城市具有正向的较强的空间自相关关系,集聚效应逐步显现.从核心影响因素来看,局部变量"人均第二工业产值"、"人均第三工业产值"、"人均工业污水排放量"和"人均城市污水排放量"的回归系数并不是区域内的某种"平均",而是在56个沿海城市各不相同,表现出了近岸海域环境污染影响因素的区域差异.%The environmental pollution in the offshore area is a negative externalization of the economic and social activities,w hich is reflected in the excessive utilization of marine environment capacity and the ignorance of the self-purification ability.This study,based on the framework of"process-pattern-mecha-nism",analyzes the development of dynamic evolution pattern of offshore environmental pollution,identi-fies the factors affecting the environmental pollution,and discusses the path selection of pollution preven-tion.According to the time process,the variation coefficient reveals that the offshore pollution in 56 coast-al cities is significant.According to the spatial pattern,spatial auto correlation coefficient(Moran's I and Moran's Ii)shows that the offshore environment pollution is spatial auto correlation in 56 coastal cities,the cluster effect gradually appears.From the perspective of the core factors,the regression coefficients arenot the mean value,actually they are different between cities.