This paper,based on the incomplete information dynamic game theory,constructs the gov-ernment incentive subsidy model,calculates the government subsidies and subsidy feasible domain,and further explores the optimal marine ranch blue carbon incentive subsidy period set by the government.The simulation part selects Japanese scallop raised in Zhangzi Island marine ranch as accounting object,using the government incentive subsidy model,and estimates that in the past ten years,the government subsidy benchmark has ranged between 2.1 -7.9 million yuan,incentive subsidies between 0.15 -0.2 million yuan,and blue carbon amount and the government's benchmark subsidies and incentives subsidies are closely related;that the optimal blue carbon incentive subsidy period for Japanese scallop in Zhangzi Island is 7 years.In addition,in the future the government should improve the marine ranch blue carbon database on the basis of government subsidies so that the government's management of blue carbon subsidies will be more efficient.%运用不完全信息动态博弈理论,构建政府激励补贴模型,得出政府的激励补贴额度和补贴可行域,并进一步探讨政府对海洋牧场蓝色碳汇的最优激励补贴期限 T*.实证模拟部分选取獐子岛海洋牧场虾夷扇贝为核算对象,运用所构建的政府激励补贴模型,测算得出:在近十年来,政府基准补贴额度在210万-790万元区间内,政府激励补贴额度在15万-20万元区间内,且政府对海洋牧场的基准补贴和激励补贴额度与海洋牧场的蓝色碳汇量息息相关;獐子岛海洋牧场虾夷扇贝蓝色碳汇的最优激励补贴期限为7年.另外,未来应在逐步推进实施海洋牧场蓝色碳汇的政府补贴基础上,完善海洋牧场蓝色碳汇数据库,使得政府对海洋牧场的蓝色碳汇补贴更有效率.
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