基于粒子群优化灰色模型的电力系统负荷预测

摘要

在分析灰色GM(1,1)模型局限性的基础上,应用粒子群优化算法的非线性全局寻优能力来求解灰色模型参数值,提出了基于粒子群优化算法的灰色模型,并给出了负荷预测的实例.预测结果表明基于粒子群优化算法的灰色模型具有较高的预测精度和较广泛的应用范围.%According to the analysis of the limitation of the grey model, particle swarm optimization algorithm is adopted in order to solve the parameters value of grey model as it has the virtue of optimum-seeking. Then a particle swarm optimization based on grey model PSOGM is proposed, and practical examples are given. The simulation results indicate that (PSOGM) model gives better precision and has wider application field.