混沌理论在电力系统负荷预测中应用综述

摘要

The accurate prediction of power system load has an important effect on the power system safe and efficient operation. Load is chaotic;prediction based on chaos theory better characterizes the physical properties of the load,with high prediction accuracy. The article describes the application of chaos theory in load forecas-ting. First,an overview of the mechanism of prediction based on chaos theory,describes several methods of i-dentifying chaotic nature. Then,we introduce several forecasting models. Finally,we conclude the existing pre-diction model.%电力系统负荷的准确预测，对电力系统安全、高效运行有重要作用。负荷存在混沌特性，而基于混沌理论的预测较好地刻画了负荷物理属性，预测精度高。并主要介绍了混沌理论在负荷预测中的应用。首先，概述了基于混沌理论预测的机理，介绍了几种混沌特性判别的方法。然后，介绍了几种预测模型。最后，对现有预测模型总结和展望。