黑龙江省农业界限温度时空变化特征分析

摘要

In this paper, based on the daily average temperature data of 78 meteorological stations in Heilongjiang Province in 1965-2014 filtering and interpolation of missing data. By using 5 days moving average method, linear trend estimation method, anomaly analysis method, correla-tion analysis method of SPSS, through the stability of Heilongjiang Province on the ones was ≥0 ℃,≥3℃, ≥5℃, ≥10℃agricultural threshold temperature check date and duration characteristics were analyzed. Results showed that the Heilongjiang Province in 1965-2014, or 0℃and 3℃, 5℃or higher, or 10℃or higher temperature were in trend ahead of the start date, each 10 a 1.2, 0.8, 1.1 and 1.6 d;The termination date delay, every 10 a were delayed 1.5, 1.1, 0. 9 and 0. 8 d, boundary temperature start date rate was greater than the termination date delay the rate in advance. The boundary temperature continuous days increased, every 10 years were increased by 2.8, 2.8, 2.1 and 2.4 d. 0℃and 3℃or higher, or higher or greater temperature 5℃, 10℃or higher boundary last days followed by 209.9, 191.5, 179.0 and 141.1 d. The change of the threshold temperature space had a trend with the decrease of latitude, the ending date was delayed, and the number of days was increas-ing, from north to south was U-shaped; In addition to 10 ℃ or higher temperature, the temperature commence ment date and the last days were significantly correlated at 0.01 level with annual average temperature.%利用黑龙江省78个站点1965~2014年日平均气温数据，采用五日滑动平均法、线性倾向估计法、距平分析法和SPSS相关性分析法，分析黑龙江省稳定通过≥0℃、≥3℃、≥5℃、≥10℃农业界限温度起止日期及持续日数特征。结果表明，黑龙江省1965~2014年，≥0℃、≥3℃、≥5℃、≥10℃界限温度起始日期均呈提前趋势，每10年分别提前1.2、0.8、1.1和1.6 d；终止日期呈延后趋势，每10年分别延后1.5、1.1、0.9和0.8 d；对应的界限温度持续日数依次为209.9、191.5、179.0和141.1 d，界限温度持续日数呈增加趋势，每10年分别增加2.8、1.8、2.1和2.4 d。界限温度空间变化随纬度降低起始日期呈提前趋势，终止日期呈延后趋势，持续日数从北至南呈U型增加趋势，其中东南部大庆地区和西南部牡丹江地区起始日期出现较早，终止日期延后较多，持续天数普遍高于北部地区。除≥10℃界限温度，各界限温度起止日期及持续日数与年平均气温均在0.01水平上显著相关。