基于CAIV的武器装备风险权衡与指标设计方法

摘要

以美军CAIV装备采办策略为基础，研究分析了已有的基于CAIV的效费权衡模型。针对当前风险管理可能引发的各种问题，将研制风险纳入“权衡空间”。通过建立新的三维“权衡空间”，提出了一种新的指标设计方法，实现了对武器装备性能、费用和研制风险的综合权衡以及对系统方案的全面分析与评价。最后，通过实例验证了该方法的有效性。%Based on the CAIV acquisition strategies of the U .S .army ,this paper makes an analysis of the existing CAIV-based cost-effectiveness trade-off model .In view of various problems w hich may be caused by the current risk management ,it is necessary to weigh the risk of development .Then ,a new index design method is proposed based on the establishment of a new three-dimensional trade-off space .The method can be used to make an integrated weighing of weaponry performance ,costs and development-risk and a comprehensive evaluation of the optional system programs .Finally ,the exam-ple used proves the proposed method to be feasible and effective .