基于改进主观Bayes方法的不确定推理模型设计

摘要

The subjective Bayes method and uncertainty reasoning of expert system are analysed.A subjective Bayes method model with certainty factor is introuduced.It eliminates the possible inconsistence between CF and sufficiency measure LS of rule, and decreases the dependence of posterior probability with prior probability.It is applied to achieve in forest pests and diseases expert system.%通过分析主观Bayes方法与专家系统中不确定推理的研究现状,提出了一种加入可信度的主观Bayes方法模型.该方法消除了可信度CF和规则成立的充分性量度LS之间可能存在的不一致性,减少了后验概率对先验概率的依赖,并在森林病虫害专家系统中进行应用实现.