策略不确定条件下基于高阶超博弈的军事对抗决策方法

摘要

军事对抗决策中面临的一个主要问题是难以确定敌方的策略集.基于超博弈分析策略不确定条件下的军事对抗决策问题.在分析超博弈中信念迭代原理的基础上,提出了基于高阶超博弈的对抗决策方法.将高阶信念中的结果反思到低阶信念,并最终反思到一阶信念中,将己方的决策建立在对敌方可能决策的分析的基础上.使得己方的决策具有针对性且更加合理.以二战中西线战役为例验证了方法的可行性和有效性.%The main problem of military antagonism decision is its difficulty to confirm the strategy set of adversary. This research analyzes the military decision under the uncertainty of strategy set based on hypergame. The decision approach of high-level hypergame was proposed after analysis the belief relationship of each level. The result of high-level was put back to low-level to refine the decision based on the analysis of the possible decision of adversary. Consequently, this makes decision of friendly forces more pertinent and reasonable against to adversary. Finally an example is used to illustrate the approach.