长江流域大洪水有序网络结构及其预测研究

摘要

根据1827年以来的统计资料进行分析，长江流域大洪水展示出极为显著的有序性。运用翁文波信息预测理论，构建长江大洪水二维平面和三维立体信息有序网络结构并进行综合分析和预测，结果表明：2014、2020、2030、2036、2051与2058年前后的汛期，长江流域将有可能发生大洪水。%According to the latest statistical data of hydrology,a total of 21 floods took place in the Changjiang Riv-er Basin from 1827 to now,which showed a very obvious orderliness.Based on the information forecasting theory and ordered network analysis,we construct the 2D-and 3D-ordered network structure and make prediction research.Pre-diction results show that the future big deluges will probably occur in the Changjiang River Basin around 2014, 2020,2030,2036,2051 and 2058.