人民币汇率波动对我国货币供给影响的实证研究

摘要

在经济全球化趋势下，我国的货币供给受人民币汇率波动的影响越来越强。文章在用相关性分析、格兰杰因果关系检验、回归分析的实证方法就人民币汇率对我国货币供给的影响进行了分析。发现人民币汇率波动对我国货币供给的影响主要表现为：对我国的货币供给是正向的影响；对不同层次的货币影响强弱不同；人民币汇率制度改革之后，人民币汇率波动与我国货币供给的联系更为密切；使货币供给的内生性增加。据此提出了相关政策建议。%Under the trend of the economic globalization, the influence of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on money supply of China gets stronger. This paper analyses the influence of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on money supply of China with the correlation analysis, Granger causality test, and regression analysis of the empirical method. It is concluded that the influence of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on money supply of China is a positive, and the influence is different on currencies of different levels; after reform of RMB exchange rate system, the relation of the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate and the money supply of China gets closer; RMB exchange rate fluctuation enhance the endophytism of the money supply of China. On the basis of the conclusion, the paper proposes relevant policy suggestions.