萍乡市水资源短缺风险分析

摘要

With the rapid development of the social economy,the shortage of water resources is becoming increasingly seri-ous.The risk management has become the main method to cope with the shortage of water resources.According to the analy-sis of the supply and demand of water resources in Pingxiang City,we get the distribution function of water shortage.Selec-ting the risk rate,vulnerability,recovery,return period and risk as the evaluation index of water shortage in Pingxiang City, we evaluate the water shortage risk of each partition in Pingxiang City.The results show that Xiangdong District,Luxi County and Lianhua County are in the state of low risk of water shortage;that Shangli County has increased from low risk to medium risk,and takes on a rising trend in the future;and that Anyuan District has been in the state of high risk.%随着社会经济的快速发展,水资源短缺问题越来越严重,风险管理已成为应对水资源短缺的主要模式.根据萍乡市水资源供需平衡分析的结果,对萍乡市缺水量系列进行分析,得到缺水量的分布函数,选取风险率、易损性、可恢复性、重现期及风险度作为各分区缺水风险的评价指标,对各分区的水资源短缺风险指标值进行综合评价.结果表明,湘东区、芦溪县、莲花县处于水资源短缺低风险状态,上栗县水资源短缺状况已经从较低风险提升到中风险,并且在未来还有上升的趋势;而安源区一直处于水资源短缺高风险状态.