1961-2012年山东省汛期暴雨气候特征分析

摘要

Based on daily precipitation data at 35 observation stations during the flood season from 1961 to 2012 in Shandong province,temporal and spatial characteristics of rainstorm day and intensity were analyzed by a mathe-matical statistical method.Meanwhile,a mean generating function model was established in an experiment of rain-storm prediction and was used to predict rainstorm.The results show that the rainstorm day and intensity during the flood season from 1961 to 2012 in Shandong province are in a decreasing trend,and both are not statistically signif-icant at the 0.05 level.Annual mean rainstorm days during the flood season are 2.2 days from 1961 to 2012 in Shandong province,and there are two cycles of 3.4 years and 8.0 years.Annual mean rainstorm intensity is 67.8 mm·d -1 ,oscillating with cycles of 2.3 years,3.3 years,6.9 years and quasi-12 years.There are no abrupt changes for rainstorm day and intensity during the flood season from 1961 to 2012 in Shandong province.Particu-larly,the annual mean rainstorm day and intensity during the flood season all decrease from the mid-later 1970s to late 1980s.The rainstorm day and intensity all increase gradually from northwest to southeast in Shandong prov-ince.The high frequency and strong intensity rainstorm events and continuous rainstorm events usually occur in the south of Shandong province,the south and east of Shandong peninsula.Prediction of rainstorm suggests that the mean generating function model can correctly simulate climate trend of rainstorm during the flood season from 2003 to 2012 in Shandong province,and it also has a good ability in the rainstorm prediction.%利用1961—2012年山东省35个气象站汛期逐日降水资料，采用常规统计法分析了山东省汛期暴雨日数和暴雨强度的时空变化特征，运用均生函数建立了山东省汛期暴雨日数和暴雨强度的预测模型，并进行试报和预报检验。结果表明：1961—2012年山东省汛期暴雨日数和暴雨强度均呈减小的趋势，但减小趋势不明显，未通过0.05信度的显著性检验。1961—2012年山东省汛期平均暴雨日数为2.2 d，存在3.4 a 与准8.0 a 周期振荡；暴雨平均强度为67.8 mm·d －1，存在2.3 a、3.3 a、6.9 a 与准12.0 a 的变化周期。1961—2012年山东省汛期暴雨日数和暴雨强度未出现气候突变；暴雨日数和暴雨强度自20世纪70年代中末期至80年代末期出现年代际减小的变化。山东省汛期暴雨多年平均日数和暴雨强度呈自西北向东南逐渐增加的分布趋势。鲁南、山东半岛南部和东部地区是山东省汛期暴雨（连续性暴雨）的多发地带及暴雨强度的大值区域。对2003—2012年山东汛期暴雨预测表明，均生函数预测模型可较好拟合山东省汛期暴雨日数和暴雨强度的变化趋势，对山东汛期暴雨有较好的预测能力。