宁波市高温中暑气象等级评定方法研究

摘要

利用1980—2014年宁波市气象观测资料和2011—2014年6—8月宁波市中暑病例资料，基于现有中暑气象等级，通过对气象因素和中暑事件进行相关分析，采用分位数法建立了新的中暑气象等级。结果表明：本文采用第45、第70和第85分位数对宁波市日最高气温和炎热指数进行了新的等级划分，并结合中暑事件与高温持续时间对高温中暑气象等级划分进行了改进，将宁波地区中暑气象等级分为可能发生中暑、易发生中暑、较易发生中暑和极易发生中暑4个等级。对改进的高温中暑气象等级验证和对比分析表明，改进后的高温中暑气象等级划分标准更适合宁波地区，由气象条件和中暑实况确定的高温中暑等级基本可反映人体中暑的风险，对实际中暑气象等级预报更具指导作用。%Based on the daily surface meteorological observation data from 1980 to 2014 and the cases of residents′heatstroke during June to August from 201 1 to 2014 in Ningbo,a new meteorological grade of heatstroke was es-tablished using a quantile method according to the correlation between local meteorological factors and heatstroke cases.The 45th,70th and 85th quantiles were used to divide the maximum temperatures and heat indices into new division grades.The meteorological grades of heatstroke were improved by combining the heatstroke cases and the persistent days of the maximum temperature.The meteorological grades of heatstroke were classified as possible, easy,easier and extremely easy occurence.The results show that the improved meteorological grade of heatstroke is more suitable to Ningbo region.The heatstroke grade determined by the meteorological conditions and heatstroke cases are able to reflect the risk of heatstroke.This work provides a reference for predicting the real meteorological grades of heatstroke.