SDSM统计降尺度方法对江淮地区地面气温模拟能力评估及其未来情景预估

摘要

运用SDSM统计降尺度对江淮地区五个代表站点进行统计降尺度研究,应用独立观测资料验证发现统计降尺度模式具有一定的可靠性.在A2排放情景下,对5个测站的未来情景研究发现,到21世纪中叶,各测站普遍增温1.5℃左右,到本世纪末,增温幅度在4℃左右.这一结论与LMDZ动力降尺度模式结果基本一致,但统计降尺度的模拟值要略高于动力降尺度.%SDSM statistical downscaling method was used to project and evaluate the surface temperature over Yangtze-Huaihe River Valleys. The results indicate that the SDSM model was reliable and the surface temperature at 5 representative stations would be increased by about 1.5℃ in 2050s under IPCC SRES A2. By the end of 21st century the warming would be around 4 t. This conclusion is consistent with the dynamical downscaling method ( LMDZ). But the warming amplitude is larger than that by using SDSM method.