广西主汛期降水量异常诊断分析

摘要

Through the analysis of precipitation in flood season in Guangxi, the years with abnormal more or/and less precipitation is preliminary defined. This paper analyzes the relationship among average precipitation in flood season, Pacific marine temperature field and 500hPa potential height field for selecting marine temperature factor and 500hPa potential height field factor which influence the precipitation in Guangxi. The statistic diagnosis model of abnormal precipitation in marine temperature field and in 500hPa height field, as well as the concept diagnosis prediction model, are set up by adopting statistic diagnosis model.%通过对广西主汛期降水量的分析，初步确定了异常偏多和异常偏少年，分析广西主汛期平均降水量与太平洋海温场和大气环流的关系，筛选影响广西降水量的海温和500hPa位势高度场因子；建立降水异常的统计诊断模型及概念诊断预测模型。