我国居民消费问题研究*--基于子女数量、内生时间偏好视角

摘要

文章将时间偏好内生化，个人子女数量增加会加强个人对未来的耐心程度，增加对未来的时间偏好，而未来时间偏好的增加会降低个人的即期消费，增加居民储蓄。因此，子女数量会通过增加个人对未来的贴现进而增加储蓄、减少消费。进一步，采用2008年中国社会综合调查数据(CGSS)研究发现户主子女数量对家庭消费率的负作用，这也证实了时间偏好的内生性。考虑到计划生育制度之前的生育人群，目前正是我国社会中有较高收入的年龄群体和储蓄主体，他们的低消费高储蓄倾向或许是整个社会高储蓄率的重要原因。通过供给侧的经济结构调整，提升产品质量，促进改善性消费或可有效解决该部分人群低消费高储蓄的状况。%This paper introduces the endogenous time discounting factor into an overlapping generation model,and defines the time discounting factor as the function of the number of children, which is monotonically increasing and concave.In this model,which we construct in this paper,we find that the household with the high number of children would increase the propinquity of future pleasures,and then decrease the consumption at present.Further,using China general social survey, this paper examines how the number of the household head’s children affects the consumption,and the result confirms the conclusion in our model that the number of the children has negative impact on the consumption rate,which also proves the existence of the endogeneity of time preference.Considering the Family planning policy in China from 1980s,as the time goes,the number of citizens’children will be sharply reduced,and when these citizens gradually become the main consumers in china,they will feel the future gets more remote and thus increase the consumption,which will alleviate the problem of high saving in china and promote the healthy development of the national economy.