使用历史文献、气象、自然地理资料、数字高程模型和GIS技术,利用Logistic回归模型,分析兰州市地形要素对泥石流灾害发生的影响.结果显示:近百年兰州市发生泥石流灾害的时间比较频繁、范围较小;利用Logistic回归建立泥石流灾害预测模型得出发生泥石流灾害的概率与坡度、坡向相关性不显著,而与高程、距河距离成负相关关系,对模型进行检验,预测正确率达73.7％,预测效果较好.%With a view to the local geographical environment and terrain factors,the relationship between debris flow distribution and topographic factors in Lanzhou were quantitatively analyzed,using documents,meteorological data,physical geographic data,digital elevation models,GIS technology as well as the Logistic model.The results showed that,during the last one hundred years,debris flow disasters occurred frequently but on smaller scales.A predictive formula of debris flow disasters was established using the Logistic regression model,and it was found that the occurrence probability of debris flow disasters had a negative correlation with the elevation and distance from a river,and the slope and aspect had little effect on occurrence probability.We tested the model and found that the prediction accuracy rate of this model is as high as 73.7％,with a much better predicting effect than others.
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