基于灰色GM（1,1）模型的济宁市人口预测

摘要

On the basis of data of 2001~2010 population,GM(1,1) model which is set up by applying the gray systemt. The statistical tests and error analysis show the higher accuracy of the model. GM(1,1) model is used to forecast Jining population data of 2011~2015 year GM(1,1) model, and analyze the prediction results by the combination of Jining population history and current status.%以2001～2010年济宁市10年的人口数据资料为依据,应用灰色系统理论构建GM(1,1)人口预测模型。统计检验和误差分析表明,模型精度较高,用该模型对济宁市2011～2015年的人口总数进行了预测,并结合济宁市人口发展历史和现状对预测结果进行了分析。