水在农业发展中起重要作用，发展节水农业是缓解水资源供需矛盾、提高农业综合生产能力的重要途径。建设节水型农业，提高水的有效利用率，坚持节水灌溉、坚持节水农业的发展，不断改善和完善农业生产条件，将促进水资源可持续利用和社会经济可持续发展。本文获取泸县耕地面积、主要农作物种植面积、水资源利用及水利工程变化数据，主要农作物平均灌溉定额和节水灌溉定额数据，运用灰色预测法对泸县未来几年的主要农作物灌溉用水量进行预测，结果显示：2014-2017年水稻、玉米、小麦在采用节水技术后共计用水量分别为：14.2亿m3、11.08亿m3、0.46亿m3，共计节水量分别为：14.04亿m3、11.41亿m3、0.59亿m3。研究得出：应该大力发展节水农业.改进节水技术.提高水的利用率.节约水资源。%Water plays an important role in agricultural development, and the water-saving agriculture de⁃velopment is an important way to alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources and improve the agricultural comprehensive production capacity. It will promote the sustainable utilization of water resources and the sustainable development of social economy to construct the water-saving agriculture, in⁃crease the effective utilization of water, keep on water-saving irrigation and agriculture, and consistently im⁃prove the agricultural production conditions. By collecting the cultivated land area, the main crop planting area, the water resource utilization and water conservancy engineering change data and the main crop average irriga⁃tion and water-saving irrigation quota data in Luxian County, the paper predicts the main crop irrigation water consumption in the following few years there by using the Grey Forecasting Method. The results shows that the water consumption of rice, corn and wheat in 2014-2017 after adopting water-saving technology is respectively 1.42 billion m3, 1.108 billion m3, 046 million m3, and the total amount of water saved is respectively 1.404 bil⁃lion m3, 1.141 billion m3, 0.59 million m3. Therefore, the research draws the conclusion that we should vigor⁃ously develop water-saving agriculture, improve the water-saving technology, increase the water efficiency and save the water resources.
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