中国物价波动的内外影响因素分析

摘要

本文基于2000—2011年的季度数据，运用向量自回归（VAR）模型，实证研究了中国物价波动的内外部影响因素。实证结果表明：中国通货膨胀既有内部调整的原因，也有外部冲击的原因；在短期内，国际原油价格和国际食品价格等外部冲击是主要影响因素，而在中长期，内部调整因素是通货膨胀的主要决定因素，其中实际GDP增长率对通货膨胀的贡献度最大。%Based on seasonal time series data of 2000 to 2011, this paper does an empirical research on the internal and external influencing factors of China's price fluctuation, using VAR model. The results suggests: There're both internal adjustment factors and external shocks. In the short run, they are the main influencing factors on inflation for the international oil prices and international food prices, and in the medium-long run, the internal influencing factors are the main ones, among which, the real GDP growth rate makes the biggest contribution to the inflation.