依据2001—2015年《全国农产品成本收益资料汇编》数据,分析露地西红柿生产的要素禀赋变动与要素替代变化,从土地生产率、劳动生产率两个方面说明生产方式的演变趋势,进一步探究生产方式变迁的内在原因.研究表明:2001—2010年资本、劳动与土地三要素的投入比例基本维持稳定,此后资本要素投入大幅增加并加快对劳动和土地要素的替代.2000—2009年西红柿生产呈现劳动生产率、土地生产率"双增长"趋势, 2009年后转为劳动生产率提高、土地生产率下降的"一升一降"趋势,一定程度上说明农业生产方式的转变悄然实现,其关键在于资本要素作用的发挥.实证分析表明:资本土地比、劳动土地比促进土地生产率的提高,而化肥折纯用量并没有显著影响;土地劳动比、农业机械技术促进劳动生产率的提高;作用机制为资本通过对农业机械技术的投入而替代劳动要素并促进劳动生产率提高,资本集约投入土地而替代土地要素并促进土地生产率的提高.%Based on the data of National Cost and Income of Agricultural Products Complications 2001—2015,we analyzed the change of factor endowments and factor substitution of tomato production to show the e-volution trend of the production mode from two aspects and to explore the internal reasons for the changes in production mode.Research shows that investment portfolio of the three major factors,namely,capital,labor and land remained stable from 2001 to 2010,after which period the capital element accelerated the replacement of labor and land.Labor productivity and land productivity enjoyed"double growth"in tomato production before 2009,and then the former continued to improve while the latter declined,indicating that to some extent,the transformation of the mode of agricultural production had been quietly achieved with capital playing the key role.Empirical analysis shows that the capital-land ratio and labor-land ratio promote land productivity,and the pure fertilizer dosage has no significant effect andthat land-labor ratio and agricultural machinery technolo-gy promote labor productivity as capital investedin agricultural machinery technologywill replace labor and im-prove the labor productivity and capital intensively investedin land will replace the land and improve land pro-ductivity.
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