基于面板数据的我国入境旅游经济与接待人数研究

摘要

运用空间回归模型，选取中国大陆31个省份2003～2011年旅游外汇收入等相关面板数据指标，实证研究了我国入境旅游经济与接待人数之间的关系。结果表明：入境旅游经济与入境旅游人数存在正相关、稳定性以及长期动态均衡关系。在相同入境旅游人数的情况下，发达地区的旅游外汇收入高于其他地区；甘肃、湖南、山西3省接待人数对入境旅游经济的影响最大；新疆、海南、甘肃、青海等地的入境旅游经济对接待人数的依赖程度极强。%Taking 31 provinces ,autonomous regions ,and municipalities of mainland China as regional study unit , based on tourism foreign exchange earnings in 2003~2011 ,the relationship between inbound tourism economy and the number of oversea visitor arrivals in China is analyzed .The results are as following :there is a positive correla-tion ,stability and long-term dynamic equilibrium relationship between inbound tourism economy and the number of oversea visitor arrivals .On the premise of similar number of oversea visitor arrivals ,tourism foreign exchange earn-ings in developed regions are higher than those in other regions ;the number of oversea visitor arrivals in Gansu , Hunan ,Shanxi provinces has high influence ;and there is a strong dependence in Xinjiang ,Hainan ,Gansu ,Qinghai etc .