日本果汁市场的进口需求分析

摘要

Using monthly Japanese fruit juice import data from January, 2001 to January, 2011, this paper analyzes the import patterns of Japan＇ s nine fruit juices by implementing and testing a general differential demand system that nests four alternative import demand specifications. When tested against the gener- al system, the analysis rejects all specifications except CBS. Based on CBS mod- el, this paper analyses the expenditure elasticity and price elasticity. The results show that all the expenditure elasticity are positive expect coconut milk, the own-price elasticity of grapefruit juice, mango juice, grape juice and coconut milk has significant influence, the own-price elasticity of apple juice doesn＇ t have significant influence, the relationship between apple juice and other citrus juice is competitive.%运用2001年1月一2011年1月间、共121组日本各类果汁进口月度数据，比较分析一般化需求系统模型（Generaldemandsystem）与其嵌套的四种需求系统模型（Rotterdam、CBS、AIDS、NBR），通过分析和检验得出CBS模型更符合研究的数据资料。基于CBS模型对日本果汁进口需求的研究结果显示：除椰子汁外，所有果汁的支出弹性显著为正，且橙汁和果蔬汁的支出弹性为富有弹性；柚子汁、芒果汁、葡萄汁和椰子汁的自价格弹性影响显著，苹果汁自价格影响不显著；其他柑橘属类果汁对苹果汁有替代影响。