科学计量学在技术预见中的应用研究*--以新能源汽车产业为例

摘要

Due to the development and improvement of Technology Foresight theory, the comprehensive application of both qualitative and quantitative methods is used, which changes the single qualitative method-dominated situation in the previous starting stage. Present-ly, the Delphi method is the major method used in Technology Foresight, the quantitative analysis is still comparatively rare in the real case analysis in China. This article explores the foresight research in new energy automobile industry from the perspective of scientometrics, u-sing technical activity analysis and patent co-appearance network to quantitatively analyze the R&D frontiers and development trend in the industry. The results show that the future research focus mainly lies in new material, safe use of electricity, structural parts in battery, and related electric traction.%随着技术预见的理论体系逐渐丰富，技术预见的方法也逐渐从单一定性方法，向定性定量综合运用转变。目前，我国的技术预见基本以德尔菲法为主，将定量方法应用到技术预见的实际案例较少。从科学计量学的角度，开展了新能源汽车行业的技术预见研究，利用技术活跃度分析、专利技术共现等方法对新能源汽车的技术研究前沿和发展趋势进行了计量分析，研究发现电池技术中的新材料、安全用电、结构零件及相关电力牵引等是未来一段时间内的研发热点。