首页> 中文期刊> 《工业技术经济》 >最终消费与经济增长的协整分析--基于1978~2012年数据的实证研究

最终消费与经济增长的协整分析--基于1978~2012年数据的实证研究

         

摘要

根据1978~2012年我国最终消费和国内生产总值数据,借助于eviews6.0软件,通过协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、误差修正模型对我国最终消费和经济增长关系进行了实证分析。结果发现:农村居民消费、城镇居民消费、政府消费与经济增长之间存在着稳定的均衡关系;我国农村居民消费对经济增长的拉动作用最强,其次是政府消费,最后是城镇居民消费;城镇居民消费、政府消费是经济增长的单向格兰杰原因。政府消费是农村居民消费、城镇居民消费的单向格兰杰原因。%〔Abstract〕 According to the final consumption and GDP data from 1978 to 2012 , with the eviews 6.0 software , through the co -in-tegration test , granger causality test and error correction model , we makes an empirical analysis on the relationship between final consump-tion and the economic growth of China . The results are as follows :there exists a stable equilibrium relationship between the consumption of rural residents , urban residents'consumption , government consumption and economic growth ;the rural residents'consumption has the strongest driving effect on economic growth , followed by the government consumption , the last is the urban residents'consumption . Urban residents'consumption , government consumption is one -way granger cause of economic growth . Government consumption is one -way granger cause of rural residents consumption and urban residents consumption .

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