城镇化进程对商用车销量影响路径的研究

摘要

The paper summarizes the influence path of urbanization process on commercial vehicle sales in China . The influence path can be described into two parts . In the first part , urbanization process causes the mobility of population and goods , which drives up the level of passenger volume and freight volume . In the second part , the increase of passenger volume and freight volume affects commer-cial vehicle sales . Commercial vehicle sales simultaneously affect the passenger volume and freight volume . The paper employs a simulta-neous equations model to test the hypothesized influence path and discusses the difference of the influence path according to the different ur-banized regions and different commercial vehicle types . The estimated results show that the effects of urbanization process on the passenger volume and freight volume is more significant for passenger car than for freight car . But the passenger volume and freight volume have sig-nificant effects on both the passenger car sales and the freight car sales . This influence path is more significant in the lower -urbanized provinces . And for different type of commercial vehicles , the urbanization process has more significant effects on the medium bus . But the simultaneous effects between freight volume or passenger volume and commercial vehicle sales are quite significant for all the types of truck .%本文总结了中国城镇化进程对商用车销量的影响路径，影响路径可以被描述为两个阶段，（1）城镇化进程带来了人口和货物的流动，改变了客运量和货运量；（2）客运量和货运量的改变影响了商用车的总体销量，同时，商用车的销量又会反过来影响客运量和货运量的变化。本文构建了联立方程模型验证这一假设，并且针对不同城镇化水平的地区和不同的商用车车型，分组讨论了每一组别中影响路径可能出现的变化。估计结果显示，城镇化进程对客运量或货运量的影响在客车分类中要比在货车分类中显著，但客运量与客车销量和货运量与货车销量的互相影响却都非常显著，这一影响路径在城镇化程度较低的省份更为显著。对于不同的商用车车型，城镇化率只对中客的客运量的影响显著。但货运量和货车销量之间的联动对于所有货车车型来说都非常显著。