基于计量模型经济增长与财政收支关系的实证分析

摘要

财政收支与经济增长的关系一直存在争议。本文通过误差修正模型、格兰杰检验和脉冲响应函数进行实证分析，分析发现：财政收支与经济增长在长期均衡方面相关性不显著，但是在短期均衡上存在相互关系。财政收入能够促进经济的增长，经济的增长能够促进财政支出的增长，但是这种积极作用是逐渐形成，并不能迅速发生效果。为了保证财政收支效果，促进经济发展，本文提出了相关政策建议。%The relationship between fiscal revenue and expenditure and economic growth has been controversial . In this article , the author carried on the empirical analysis based on the error correction model , granger test and impulse response function , and the research found that:the financial revenue and expenditure and economic growth is not significant in terms of long-term equilibrium correlation , but in the short term equilibrium relationship exists . Fiscal revenue can promote economic growth , economic growth can promote the growth of fiscal expenditure , but the positive effect is gradually formed , does not happen quickly . In order to guarantee the effect of fiscal revenue and expenditure , promote economic development , this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions .