扩展的能源库兹涅茨曲线--基于中国省域的面板数据分析

摘要

Based on the energy Kuznets curve theory and the China provincial panel data during 1995-2010 , by using the panel u-nit root test and cointegration test methods ,we studied the existence of China per capita energy consumption Kuznets curve .The results of the study show that:the inverted N curve of per capita energy consumption exists in the whole nation , the eastern region , the central re-gion , and the western region as well . After adding the second structure and the urbanization rate , the downward inflection point of the na-tional and eastern area increased significantly , while the downward inflection point of middle and west area are reduced lightly , the spillover effects of China energy consumption exist is obvious according to the results of empirical analysis , we need to optimize the industri-al structure , adhere to the new urbanization road , adhere to good regional coordination policy , and develop a reasonable energy policy , but should reflect regional differences .%在能源库兹涅茨曲线理论的基础上，选用1995～2010年中国省域面板数据，运用面板单位根和协整检验方法，研究了中国人均能源库兹涅茨曲线的存在性。研究结果表明：中国及其东部地区和中部地区、西部地区均存在人均能源消费的倒N型曲线。在加入二产结构和城镇化率之后，全国及东部地区的下行拐点明显提高，而中、西部地区的下行拐点则有所下调，中国能源消费存在较明显的溢出效应。针对实证分析结果，需要优化产业结构、坚持新型城镇化道路、坚持良好的区域协同政策、制定合理的能源政策，但应体现区域差异性。