中国经济增长稳定性评价及其影响因素分析

摘要

经济增长稳定性对经济增长的质量和国民福利水平有重要影响。本文在评估改革开放以来我国经济增长稳定性的基础上，定量分析了各因素对经济增长稳定性的影响程度。分析结果表明，经济增长稳定性主要受产出缺口、需求结构、产业结构和投资者所有制结构等四大因素的影响，当产出缺口增加1％时，经济增长稳定指数降低0畅97个点；当需求结构（最终消费率）提高1％时，经济增长稳定指数上升0畅79个点；当产业结构提高1％时，经济增长稳定指数上升1畅47个点；当所有制结构（国有经济占比）上升1％，经济增长稳定指数降低0畅62个点。%The stability of economic growth has a significant impact on the quality of economic growth and national welfare . Based on its assessment of the stability of the growth of China's economic reform and opening up , this paper makes the quantitative analysis of each factor on economic growth stability . The results show that the stability of economic growth is mainly affected by the four factors of the output gap , the demand structure , industrial structure and investor ownership structure , etc ., when the output gap increases by 1% , the index of economic growth stability decreased 0.97 points ;when the structure of demand (final consumption rate ) increased by 1% , the index of economic growth stability rose 0.79 points;when the industrial structure increased by 1% , the index of economic growth stability rose 1.47 points;when the ownership structure (state-owned economy accounting ) increased by 1% , the index of economic growth sta-bility decreased 0.62 points .