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中国省域经济发展影响因素及其时空规律研究——基于GTWR模型

     

摘要

Based on the panel data of provincial regions of China during 2006 -2013 , using the geographically and temporally weighted regression model (GTWR) to reveal the spatial effects of education , FDI , fixed asset investment , industry structure , import and export trade on GDP . The result shows that each factor , in different regions , has strong spatial heterogeneity . These differences make the level of economic show a significant characteristic of spatial heterogeneity . With the elapse of time and space , education increasingly promotes the economic growth , and its effects also appear to be higher in the east than in the west . FDI increasingly promotes the economic growth , and its effects also appear spatial heterogeneity . Fixed asset investment in the contribution of economic growth has gradually re-duced . Import and export in the contribution of economic growth has gradually strengthened . Therefore , strengthen the education level and optimize the industrial structure is the key to the economic development of the region .%文章基于2006~2013年中国省会城市数据 ,应用时空加权回归模型 (GTWR ) ,将时间和空间信息纳入到模型之中 ,从空间异质性的角度考察我国各个省域的教育、FDI、固定资产投资、产业结构、进出口贸易对GDP的空间交互作用及影响差异.研究结果表明 ,各影响因素存在着不可忽视的个体差异 ,这种差异导致经济发展水平在时间 ,空间分布上具有显著的异质性特征 ;随着时间和空间的推移 ,教育对经济发展的促进作用不断增强并呈现出东高西低的格局 ;FDI对经济增长的推动作用不断增强并呈现出异质性特征 ;固定资产投资对各地经济增长贡献减弱 ;进出口贸易对各地经济增长贡献增强.因此 ,加强各地区教育水平 ,优化产业结构成为各地区经济均衡发展的关键.

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