物联网时代,RFID技术迅速发展,其应用已经渗透到了人们工作与生活的各个领域.这种技术可以大大降低生产成本、降低信息不对称造成的不确定性、整合供应链资源、提升运营效率等,然而鉴于其初期投资成本巨大以及其他诸多安全问题,RFID信息采纳对公司市值的影响尚不明确,很多中小企业对于是否应用这项信息技术处于观望态度.本文以1997-2011年全球89家上市公司、119条RFID技术采纳信息披露公告为样本,采用国际会计准则通用的CPA (Calendar Portfolio Analysis)方法以及资产收益率ROA (Return on Assets)比较分析这些上市公司投资公告对企业长期的影响,并通过上市公司的分类考察RFID技术采纳的行业差异.本文发现总体上RFID技术对公司市值的长期影响仍不容乐观,其中RFID技术采纳对制造业企业冲击更为明显.在此基础上,本文提出了提升RFID采纳经营效果,保护外部投资者权益的相应建议.%In the era of the Intemet of things (IoT),RFID is expected to take over barcode technology at a great rate.The technology has been developing rapidly and penetrating into people's daily life.This innovative technology can greatly lower manufacturing cost,reduce the uncertainty caused by information asymmetry,integrate the supply chain,and increase operational efficiency.However,some existing challenges,such as huge initial investment,integration problem,and performance uncertainties,make firms hesitate to undertake this innovative technology project.Empirical evidence on the trade-offbetween RFID benefit and cost in short term is not consistent.IT,like RFID,contributes to performance dimensions,such as strategic flexibility and intangible value.RFID's value cannot be fully realized in a short time and short-term analysis will not identify the impact of RFID adoption adequately.Thus,a long-term observation is needed to investigate RFID's impact.We use monthly data of 89 companies which adopted RFID projects around the world from January 1997 to December 2011.In addition,we perform four years calendar portfolio analysis (CPA) and ROA comparison analysis to gain insights into the mechanism of RFID for improving firm performance.A critique of the management literature on event studies using long-term windows is that other events will naturally occur as the time window expands and will confound the effect of the event under study.In response to this issue,calendar portfolio analysis is used in this study to discover RFID's long term impact on firms' market value.The calendar portfolio analysis is conducted in two steps.The first step computes an average return for the specified calendar-time portfolio.The second step measures the risk-adjusted performance by estimating a multifactor time-series regression model.Since the samples in our study are both US listed and non-US listed,we adopt the merged Fama-French three factors model proposed by Bose et al.'s study.The estimator of model intercept provides a test of the null hypothesis that the abnormal return of the portfolio on the calendar-time portfolio is zero.In addition,we find that firms adopting RFID generally experience significant and negative abnormal market return over a long term.However,single indicator alone has its prerequisite and its insufficiency.In this paper,we employ Return-on-Assets (ROA) as the second measure of firm performance and use ROA comparative analysis to gain insights into the mechanism of RFID for firm performance.We find that the adoption of RFID has influence on ROA of firms over a long term.Industry type is believed to be an essential moderator of IT investment.We follow Bose et al.'s research and classify our samples into manufacturing and nonmanufacturing samples to investigate industry factors that moderate the long-term impact of RFID on the investment return of adopting firms.We find that manufactures that adopt RFID have lower and significant negative abnormal market return,in comparison with non-manufacture adopters.RFID adoption has no significant positive influence on ROA for manufacturers and non-manufacturers.Our results show that RFID may be helpful,but increase operational cost to firms which could hurt their market value and may also cancel the effect of profit growth based on ROA.For managers of manufacturers,extra caution is needed if they want to adopt RFID because those firms may face additional risk due to heavy operational cost and challenges in integrating IT and business.
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