一种新的辨识流域单位线的专家系统及其应用

摘要

According to the features of rainfall distribution varying with time and space,a novel expert system(ES) for idnetifying the unit hydrographs automatically varying with time is proposed in this paper to solve the problems arising from the simplification of unit hydrographs method.The relationships between the characteristics of rainfall and unit hydrographs in a river basin are studied and a real ES is established by using the advanced softwave system PowerBuilder.The application of the proposed method to the flood control decision support system(FCDSS) for Zishui river basin is presented.It is concludedthat the precision of flood forecasting is better than that of the conventional methods.%为克服在使用单位线法中过于简化的问题，根据流域降雨特征的时空变化，本文提出了一种用专家系统逐时段辨识单位线的新方法。研究了流域降雨特征与单位线的关系；研究了专家系统的知识表示形式、知识库的结构和专家系统的推理机；基于最新开发软件系统PB5.0，将该方法应用在柘溪防洪决策支持系统(简称FcDSS)中。结果表明，预报精度有较大的提高。