针对水库供水调度的实时性和不确定性，通过分析入库径流超越机率，以缺水率最小为目标函数，建立水库群供水调度模型，并应用基于免疫进化的蚁群算法对模型进行求解，绘制水库群供水调度操作规线；应用模糊数学、信息熵等原理，确定现状水库供水指标D、未来供水水情指标S以及水库供水预警指标和应变措施，建立了水库群供水调度预警系统。实例计算表明，本文建立的水库供水预警系统能够合理、有效地为调度操作人员提供正确、及时的决策。%According to the characteristics of real-time and uncertainty of reservoir water supply dispatching, the model of reservoir water supply dispatching has been established based on the analysis on exceedance probability of reservoir inflow with the minimum water shortage rate as the objective function. The ant colony optimization based on immune evolutionary algorithm was applied to solve the problem of reservoirs dispatch optimization and formulate the operation rules curve. The principles of fuzzy mathematics and information entropy were applied to determine the status quo reservoir water supply index, the future reservoir water supply index, reservoir water supply alarming index and changing measures. A practical example shows that the early warning system of reservoir water supply dispatching can offer correct and in-time deci- sion-making plan for operators.
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