具有跳跃变异的非一致分布水文序列频率计算方法

摘要

The principle and application of nonidentically distributed hydrologic data with jump up compo- nents are presented. By opplying the total probability theories, the formulas of nonidentically distributed hy- drologic data with jump up components is deduced. The empirical probability and theoretical probability and corresponding procedures were given. The annual average streamflow from the Zhang Jiashan Gauging Sta- tion during 1932--2006 in Jinghe of the Weihe River basin, China, was used to illustrate these methods. The results show that the formulas can be fitted by arbitrary common distributions and suited to hydrologi- cal data with muhi-change points. By using the statistical computation functions, the design hydrological val- ues of the design frequency are easy to be obtained. It also indicates that the formulas in this paper can provide some basic theories for nonidentically distributed hydrologic data.%研究具有跳跃变异的非一致分布水文序列频率计算方法。应用全概率公式，推导了具有跳跃变异的非一致分布水文序列频率计算公式，给出了经验频率和理论频率计算以及相应的计算步骤。通过对渭河流域泾河张家山站1932-2006年年平均流量序列的实例计算，表明文中的计算公式可以灵活地选用目前常用的频率分布，适用多个变异点的非一致分布水文序列频率计算，借助现有的统计计算函数包，不难获得相应设计频率的设计水文值。文中水文序列频率计算具有严格的数学基础，以期为非一致分布水文序列频率的计算提供理论技术支撑。