基于调度规则的水库群供水能力与风险分析

摘要

In view of the complex structure and hierarchy characteristics of the risk assessment system for multi-reservoir water-supply system, this paper employs the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) to deter⁃mine the weight of the water-supply risk indexes for each water users. After that, an optimization model for multi-reservoir operation is constructed with the objective function of minimizing the water-supply risk. In this study, a general framework is proposed for exploring the maximum water-supply yield of the multi-reservoir system and analyzing water-supply risk, which consists of four parts:(1)generation of in⁃flow and agriculture water use data by stochastic hydrological model;(2)calculation of the aggregated evalu⁃ation index for water-supply risk for multi-reservoir system;(3)optimization of the hedging rule curves for equivalent reservoir and allocation of common water demand among individual reservoirs;(4)determination of the allocation rule for common water users. The different amounts of water demand for domestic and in⁃dustrial uses are adopted as the input data of the operation model to analyze the relationship between the water supply amount and water supply risk. In this way,the maximum water-supply yield within the allow⁃able risk can be obtained. A multi-reservoir water-supply system in North China is taken as the case study to verify the reasonability and efficacy of the proposed framework.%　　鉴于水库群供水风险指标体系的复杂结构和层次特征，本文采用层次分析法确定不同用水户各风险指标的权重，以供水风险最小为目标函数，构建水库群供水优化调度模型，提出了探讨水库群供水能力与风险分析的一般框架。即主要由以下4部分构成：（1）来水、用水资料的随机模拟生成；（2）水库群供水风险综合评价指标的计算；（3）聚合水库调度图与共同供水任务分配过程的优化；（4）共同供水任务分配规则的拟定。通过调整主要用水户的需水额度，分析水库群供水量与供水风险之间的关系，确定允许风险范围内的水库群供水能力。以中国北方某并联供水水库群为例，对调度规则控制下水库群供水能力与相应风险进行了分析，验证了所提框架的可行性与合理性。