评价洪水资源利用现状和潜力，是开展流域洪水资源利用，进而缓解水资源短缺矛盾的首要工作。本文认为流域洪水资源可利用量是洪水调控利用能力的函数，对应任何洪水调控利用能力的洪水资源均可划分为可利用量和不可利用量两部分；采用极限分析理论，推理分析流域洪水资源现状利用潜力、理论利用潜力和流域洪水资源现状可利用量、理论可利用量之间的数量关系，完善和统一了流域洪水资源利用的概念体系和评价方法。作为实例，评价了南四湖流域洪水资源利用现状和利用潜力，得出现状和理论可利用量分别为16.29~18.08亿m3、20.50~21.55亿m3，现状和理论利用潜力分别为2.66~3.86亿m3和6.78~7.33亿m3，指出现状洪水资源利用的阈值空间和未来挖掘方向，对流域洪水资源利用实践具有重要的参考价值。%To evaluate the status and potential of flood resource utilization is a priority work in flood re-sources utilization in the basin scale. This paper argues that flood resources availability is a function of the flood control capacity, and can be classified into two parts including unavailable parts and available parts. Based on this definition,the logical relationship between flood resources utilization potential at current situa-tion and the theoretical potential, flood resources availability at current situation and the theoretical avail-ability were derivate by using the limit analysis theory, and then their evaluation methods were proposed. The concepts of river basin flood resources utilization and evaluation methods were unified in this paper. At last the flood resources utilization status and utilization potential of the Nansihu Lake basin were evaluated. The results show that the status and theoretical availability were 1 629~1 808 million m3, 2 050~2 155 mil-lion m3 respectively;the status and theoretical utilization potential were 266~386 million m3 and 678~733 million m3. This research is vital for flood resources utilization practices in the Nansihu lake basin and has the important reference value for other basins.
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