信贷政策与产业政策的协调度评价基于距离协调度模型∗

摘要

In recent years,improving the coordination of credit policy and industrial policy to promote industrial restructuring has been one of the policies that the central bank have strongly emphasized.Collec-ting the credit policy and industrial policy data from 2007 to 2012,this paper uses Granger causality to test the relationship between loans and industrial development and then applies the entropy method to deter-mine the index weights number.Finally,an overall coordination model would be founded based on the dis-tance coordination degree model to estimate the coordination of credit policy and industrial policy.The re-sults shows that the degree of credit policy development and industrial policy development increases annu-ally,however,the degree of coordination between the two failed to remain at a high level.%提高信贷政策与产业政策协调度，促进产业结构调整是近年来中国人民银行着重强调的政策要求之一。采集2007年至2012年的信贷政策与产业政策相关数据对协调度进行评价，并将结果作对比分析。运用Granger因果检验初步判断贷款与产业发展的相互关系，采用熵值法确定各指标的权数，在距离协调度模型的基础上构建整体协调度模型来评价信贷政策与产业政策的协调效应。结果表明信贷政策发展度与产业政策发展度呈现逐年递增的态势，但两者之间的协调度未能维持在较高水平。