中国谷物价格波动的传递路径解析

摘要

本文运用结构路径分析法，选取行业与生产要素等成本因素，探讨了中国谷物价格波动的传导机制。分析结果表明：一方面，不同行业中间投入及生产要素对谷物价格影响的传递机制存在差异。其中，化肥、农药、种子费、水电、物流与仓储、农业生产支持性服务、非熟练劳动力及土地成本的变化会对谷物价格产生显著直接影响；而其他行业、熟练劳动力和资本对谷物的价格冲击主要通过间接路径来传导。另一方面，从谷物价格冲击对居民的影响来看，无论是城镇居民或农村居民，低收入群体受谷物价格冲击的影响较大，收入相对较高群体受间接路径冲击的影响较大。%Using structural path analysis, this paper examines the transmission mechanism of grain price fluctuation by considering factors like cost of sector input, production factor.The result shows that, on the one hand, different factors impact on grain price through different mechanism.In particular, fertilizer, pesticide, seed, water and electricity supply, logistics and warehousing, supporting service of agriculture, unskilled la-bor and land have significant direct impact on grain price.Meanwhile, costs of other industries, skilled labor and capital have indirect impact on grain price.On the other hand, low-income residents of both urban and rural households are more easily affected by grain price shock, while residents of higher income are influenced in an indirect channel.