卡尔曼半自适应模型在复杂河道实时洪水预报和行蓄洪调度中的应用

摘要

Based on previous research,a Semi-Adaptive Updating Model for complicated channel flood routing and forecasting is investigated.The flow routing for a complicated channel is considered in combination with flood diversion and flood retarding areas.An example of the Huaihe River,a typically complicated channel in China,is given to explain how the method works.The results show that the model is reasonable,effcetive and highly accurate.%针对行蓄洪区复杂河道的特点，提出了行蓄洪区的计算与预报方法，使得卡尔曼半自适应滤波模型可以用于复杂河道行蓄洪的调度和实时洪水预报.把该模型用于淮河干流中游鲁台子—吴家渡河段的洪水预报和行蓄洪的调度，取得了较高的预报精度.