首页> 中文期刊> 《黑龙江科技学院学报》 >基于风险矩阵-Delphi法的山岳型景区风险因子评估

基于风险矩阵-Delphi法的山岳型景区风险因子评估

         

摘要

This paper is a response to the challenges due to a large-scale mountain scenic area, a more complicated external environment and more potential dangers facing tourists. The study building on Mount Yuntai Scenic spot in Henan Province involves identifying 17 risk factors using literature review and field investigation;assessing the risk level of scenic spot risk factors and ranking them in order of im-portance using two-dimensional risk matrix method;and determining the index system and weight of key factors affecting the risk factors of scenic spot by employing Delphi method and analytic hierarchy process ( AHP) . The results show that Mount Yuntai Scenic spot is plagued by three higher-level risk factors, such as tourists trampling, missing and scenic equipment failure;and scenic spot risk accidents come as a result of such factors as the perfection of scenic spot risk management, the government' s supervision o-ver scenic spots, and the tourists' safety awareness. The research may provide a more scientific basis for the risk management of mountain scenic spots.%针对山岳型景区规模大、外部环境复杂多变、存在旅游安全隐患的问题,以河南省云台山景区为例,通过文献检索和实地调研,识别出17种风险因子;采用二维风险矩阵法评估景区风险因子的风险等级,并进行重要性排序;通过Delphi法和层次分析法,分别确定影响景区风险因子的关键因素评价指标体系及权重.评价结果表明,云台山景区游客踩踏、失踪与景区设备故障三种风险因子的风险等级较高.景区风险事故的发生与景区风险管理的完善性、政府对景区的监管力度及游客自身的安全意识有关.该研究为山岳型景区的风险管理提供了更为科学的依据.

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