Technological innovation makes enterprises more competitive and technological innovation diffusion in enterprises has greatly promoted the economic development. Therefore, studies on the laws of technological innovation diffusion have great significance for economic development. This paper has proposed a more realistic modified ant colony algorithm with multi-pheromone and multi-evaporation rate by combining with the evolution of technological innovation diffusion. It tries to apply ant colony optimization to simulate the process of technological innovation diffusion, to analyze the diffusion law and to predict trends of enterprises' technological innovation. Then the system simulates the process of technological innovation diffusion with specific economic data. The simulation results show that ant colony algorithm has fine possibility and reliability in the application of innovation diffusion model.%技术创新使企业在市场竞争中赢得竞争优势,而技术创新在企业间的扩散极大地促进了经济的发展,因此对技术创新扩算规律的研究对经济发展有着重要意义.通过结合区域创新系统中技术创新扩散的演变过程,提出了一种更切合实际的多信息素、多衰减系数的改进型蚁群算法,首次将其用于仿真技术创新的扩散过程,尝试利用蚁群算法仿真区域创新系统中的技术创新扩散过程,以得到企业的动态技术变革路线图,分析企业的技术扩散规律及预测企业的技术变革趋势.并用具体的经济数据进行实验,很好地证明了蚁群算法在技术创新扩散模型研究中应用的可能性和可靠性.
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