玉田地区玉米螟发生条件分析与预报模式

摘要

Based on long-term field investigation data of Ostrinia furnacalis occurrence in Plant Protection Station of Yutian and the related meteorological data in Yutian meteorological center from 2001 to 2003,2005 to 2007,3 factors controlling Ostrinia furnacalis occurrence were analyzed and the model of Ostrinia furnacalis occurrence was established.The results showed that the intensity of Ostrinia furnacalis（1st generation） occurrence in current year was mainly related to the average temperature and rainfall of May.The forecast model of Ostrinia furnacalis was constituted using the regressive analysis method： Y=88.162 7-0.376 9 X1＋0.008 6 X2.The model＇s fitting rate was 100.62%.The intensity of Ostrinia furnacalis（Second generation） occurrence in current year was mainly related to the average rainfall of August.The forecast model was： Y=-959.079 4＋3.877 7 X1.The model＇s fitting rate was 102.16%.%利用2001～2003年,2005～2007年唐山市玉田县植物保护站提供的玉米螟田间调查资料与唐山市玉田县气象台同期气象资料进行了相关分析,确定了影响唐山市玉田县玉米螟发生的主要因子,并建立了多元回归预报模式。结果表明,影响玉田地区1代玉米螟发生的主要气象因子是5月份月均气温、5月份月降水量,其结果与发生面积呈线性关系,建立的数学模型为：Y=88.162 7-0.376 9 X1＋0.008 6 X2,拟合率为100.62%;影响2代玉米螟发生的关键气象因子是8月份气温,其与发生面积呈线性关系,建立的数学模型为：Y=-959.079 4＋3.877 7 X1,拟合率为102.16%。