贸易碳排放量测算及结构分解分析--以北京市为例

摘要

This paper uses the input -output model to calculate embodied CO 2 emission caused by international and domestic trade of Beijing , and uses SDA model to analysis its effects, using the input-output table data in 2005, 2007 and 2010.The empirical results demonstrate the following three facts:(1) trade of Beijing increased its embodied CO 2 emission overall , and emissions relate with output and transfer are higher than that of export and import ;(2) those highest emission industries caused by trade are transportation and warehousing , industries relate with raw materials , fuel and its processing;(3) Beijing should increase import of those highest emission industries , and decrease their output;at the same time, make full use of the its advantage in serv-ice trade, increase the output of low carbon service trade and reduce its import .%使用投入产出方法，运用北京市2005年、2007—2010年的投入产出表数据，测算北京市市内需求诱发的碳排放量，调出、出口诱发生产的碳排放量以及调入、进口减少的本市碳排放量，并对各部分变动进行效应分解。实证结果表明：北京市贸易整体上增加了碳排放量，并且调出、调入作用分别大于出口、进口作用；各部分碳排放量靠前的行业一般集中在原材料、燃料及其加工型行业以及属于第三产业的交通运输及仓储业；北京市节能减排需要重点增加原材料、燃料及其加工型行业以及交通运输及仓储业的进口，减少其调出；同时，充分发挥北京市服务贸易的优势，增加低碳类服务贸易的调出，减少该类服务贸易的进口。